September 27, 2008
Obama Wins Debate!
Mark Halperin's Grades for the First Presidential Debate:
Obama : Overall grade: A-
Who did the best job tonight?
BO: 51
JSM: 38
Who would better handle Iraq?
BO: 52
JSM: 47
Who would better handle the economy?
BO: 58
JSM: 37
CBS Poll Results Suggest More Uncommitted Voters Saw Obama As Debate Winner:
Who won tonight's debate?
BO: 39
JSM: 25
Draw: 36
Who got better tonight?
BO: 46
JSM: 31
Who would make the right decisions about the economy?
BO: 66
JSM: 44
9:40pm MSNBC Chris Matthews "Barack Obama, who kept agreeing with McCain over and over again…looked more presidential."
9:43pm MSNBC Buchanan "He did what he had to do in the sense he came off as a tough fellow, a counterpuncher."
9:40pm MSNBC Chris Matthews: "Obama Looked More Presidential"
9:45 PM CBS – Katie Couric: "The issue of meeting with Iranian officials without preconditions and Henry Kissinger's position on that came up during my recent interview with Governor Sarah Palin. Now, after than interview I called Secretary Kissinger to clarify his position – he said he does support face-to-face talks with high-level officials in Iran without preconditions."
10:42 PM ABC - David Wright: "Obama, we saw him do 22 debates or so during the primary. He was much crisper tonight, he was much more on message."
10:45 PM FOX News – Juan Williams: "If we come back to the economic at the top, I'd have to give it to Barack Obama."
10:52 PM CNN- David Gergen: "I think John McCain needed a clear victory tonight. I think a tie was not in his interests. He is behind. This is his best subject night because the last night, they're going to be talking about the economy. I think he needed a clear victory tonight. I think that eluded him, even as strong as he was, I think Bill Bennett is absolutely right… but I don't think he walked out of here with a clear victory of the kind he needed."
CNN (Gloria Borger)- "I think you'd have to watch this debate, Anderson and say Obama held his own. He didn't give an inch to McCain on the issues of talking with Iran."
CBS News (Ambinder) "Knowledge Network Undecideds Give Debate To Obama": According to CBS News / Knowledge Networks' poll of undecided voters: 40% of uncommitted voters who watched the debate tonight thought Barack Obama was the winner. 22% thought John McCain won. 38% saw it as a draw. 68% of these voters think Obama would make the right decision about the economy. 41% think McCain would. 49% of these voters think Obama would make the right decisions about Iraq. 55% think McCain would.
Associated Press (Liz Sidoti) A night of contrasts This debate, primarily focused on foreign policy, was supposed to be McCain's sweet spot; Obama held his own. "You were wrong" on Iraq, Obama repeated three times in succession as he pointedly looked his opponent in the eye. "John, you like to pretend the war began in 2007."
The Atlantic (Marc Ambinder) The Rumble In Oxford: First Thoughts - McCain did not filter himself, letting his frustration and contempt for Obama show; he wouldn't let himself look at the challenger.
NY Daily News – "Final Verdict on Eight Years of Failed Economic Policies." After all those months of buildup, it took exactly 106 seconds for the gloves to come off, when Democrat Obama laid the blame for the current economic mess on Republican leadership in Washington. "This is a final verdict on eight years of failed economic policies promoted by George Bush [and] supported by John McCain," Obama said, taking direct aim at his GOP opponent… Obama seemed at ease in the early rounds as McCain struggled to find his feet.
Philly Daily News - Will Bunch blog: McCain "Needs a Knockout" … "Didn't Get It Tonight." I think Obama held his own, which is what he needed to do. He clearly showed he was knowledgeable on foreign affairs, and made kind of silly the argument that Sarah Palin has more experience than he does. McCain was a lot more restrained than I would have expected. …McCain can't afford to win on points. He needs a knockout. He didn't get it tonight.
Denver Post PoliticsWest (John Andrews) Zinger at McCain - Obama landed a good jab with his reference to McCain "threatening extinction to North Korea" and "singing songs about bombing Iran." McCain: "I'm not going to set the White House visitors schedule before I'm president. I don't even have a seal yet." Cute line at the Messiah's expense, but it was wasted in this setting. Obama was impressive, agree with him or not, in his big picture statement near the end when he panned back from Iraq to talk about China, the economy, and the fate of empires in history. McCain for all his courage and honor didn't paint on that kind of global canvas. More points scored into the Dem's column.
Tampa Tribune (Blog) McCain's Final Judgment: "Knowledge And Experience" McCain relied repeatedly on emotional but non-substantive or factually incorrect claims: That Obama "voted against funding the troops," wouldn't declare the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as terrorists, wants to increase taxes on people who make $42,000. But Obama's vaunted eloquence, somewhat surprisingly, failed to overwhelm the nitpicking. The verdict: Probably a tie, which means McCain will probably hold his advantage on the issue. The future debates will be between the vice presidential contenders, and between McCain and Obama on domestic issues.
TNR Blog- Focus Groups, Undecideds For Obama: For what it's worth: The Frank Luntz and Stanley Greenberg focus groups went overwhelmingly for Obama. And a CBS poll of undecideds went for Obama 40%-22%.
10:48 PM ABC - George Stephanopoulos: "Barack Obama A minus, John McCain B plus….People wonder whether [Obama] has the experience to be President, to handle national security, and I think on answer after answer after answer, he showed confidence, he showed toughness and he showed he belonged on that stage."
11:51 PM ABC - George Stephanopoulos: And overall, bottom line, the winner is Barack Obama. He comes into this race where the country wants change, his number one goal was to show that he belonged on that stage…he could hold his own on national security, he did that tonight, he gets the win."
9:53 PM CBS – Myers: "Well, I think the one thing people were looking to, to see if Barack Obama could hold his own, could he sound like a commander in chief, did he have command of foreign policy issues, could he stand there toe-to-toe with John McCain and I think he passed that test with flying colors."
10:30 PM CNN-Gloria Borger- “He took it right to mccain on the tax issue and said to people out there, if you earn over 200 -- under $250,000 a year, nothing will happen to your taxes or you'll get a tax cut.”
10:51 PM PBS - Scott Horsley - "I think John McCain's conduct of economic policy over the last two days has to look a little erratic, has to look very seat of the pants, frankly."
10:54 PM ABC - George Will: "I think Barack Obama came out and looked comfortable and as though he belonged there. So, in a sense, the structure of the debate, indeed, the fact of the debate had to give a mild leg up to Barack Obama."
11:07 PM PBS-Mark Halperin - "I thought Obama clearly did better. I thought he had a chance to show that he was calm and prepared and capable of standing toe to toe with the more experienced McCain. I thought McCain spoke too much Washington jargon, told too many jokes in shorthand, made too many comments he knew what he meant but I don't think he conveyed it necessarily to the audience overall. I thought Obama was the better communicator an did what he needed to do to reassure people."
11:08 PM MSNBC-Richard Wolffe “That was the greatest contrast…the demeanor and the tone of voice that these candidates adopted where McCain was being much more pointed much more aggressive and curiously couldn’t look Obama in the eye. Obama’s tone much more straight and even keeled but ready to look his opponent in the eye repeatedly. A big contrast.”
Denver Post: Obama says he would send "two to three brigades" to Afghanistan. McCain implies that Obama is wet behind the ears on military matters. Obama retorts with perhaps his best line of the night because it critiques McCain's temperament. Obama says that McCain has previously referenced extinction for North Korea and sang songs about bombing Iran, "so I don't know how credible that is."
Washington Post (Robinson)-The Debate: The All-Important Grumpiness Factor: Here’s the politically incorrect way of phrasing one of the central questions about tonight’s presidential debate: Did John McCain come across as too much of a grumpy old man. That might not be a nice question, but it’s an important one. Americans like to vote for the nice guy, not the grumbling prophet of doom. Throughout the 90-minute debate, McCain seemed contemptuous of Obama. He wouldn’t look at him. He tried to belittle him whenever possible -- how many times did he work “Senator Obama just doesn’t understand” into his answers? His body language was closed, defensive, tense. McCain certainly succeeded in proving that he can be aggressive, but the aggression came with a smirk and a sneer.
Iowa Sioux City Journal – “Why Obama won”
Obama’s primary task was to show Americans he has the intelligence and mastery of issues that would trump his alleged inexperience. Tonight, he did so convincingly. Obama presented the sort of policy details his critics have long accused him of lacking. Whereas McCain’s legendary testiness leaked through, Obama remained calm and cool and seemed more presidential.
Wisconsin Milwaukee Journal Sentinel – “Clear Differences”
From our view, edge to Obama.
The Arizona Republic – “Economy hot topic in close first debate”
But Obama held his own and at one point hammered McCain hard on the start of the Iraq war, hoping to inflict damage to McCain's foreign-policy reputation.
Pennsylvania – McClatchy, Centre Daily Times – “McCain misstates some facts in debate on foreign policy”
McCain made the most notable misstatements and stumbled over the names of the leaders of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose name he couldn't pronounce, and of Pakistan, referring to the latter as "Qadari" instead of Asif Ali Zardari. McCain incorrectly asserted that former Gen. Pervez Musharraf rescued Pakistan from being a "failed state" when he seized power in a 1999 coup.
Maine Portland Press Herald – "Obama much more clear about his ideas"
For Anna Halloran, 18, a musical theater major who is a registered unenrolled voter, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois was the clear winner over U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona. "He was much more well-spoken than McCain and he was much more clear about his ideas," Halloran said. "There were all these deer-in-the-headlights moments for McCain."
CNN Political Ticker – “Fact Check: Does McCain almost always agree with Bush?” Verdict: True
TIME – “Obama Wins Debate On Tactics and Strategies”
Toward the very end of tonight's debate—which was quite a good one, I believe—John McCain laid out his rationale in this election in just a few words: Senator Obama, he said, lacks the "knowledge and experience to be President." The presidency will turn on whether the American people agree with McCain on that—but on this night, Obama emerged as a candidate who was at least as knowledgeable, judicious and unflappable as McCain on foreign policy ... and more knowledgeable, and better suited to deal with the economic crisis and domestic problems the country faces.
Washington Post – ”McCain's High Horse Meets Obama's High-Mindedness”
John McCain wore the more presidential tie -- that much can be said for him -- but Barack Obama displayed the more presidential temperament, or the kind of demeanor people presumably would want in a president…neither made an outrageous blunder, although McCain did misidentify the new president of Pakistan. More critically, he came across as condescending and even rude to his opponent...
Boston Globe – “Good night for McCain, better one for Obama”
John McCain last night tried hard to make the first presidential debate a test of Barack Obama's fitness for office. McCain succeeded in his framing of the test - but Obama passed it…But with the majority of the debate focused on foreign policy - where McCain's superiority was assumed, and Obama's vulnerability was greatest - the lack of a clear winner benefits Obama more than McCain… Obama had more to gain, and he did.
New York Times – "Obama dominated the economic portion of the debate"
Mr. Obama dominated the economic portion of the debate, arguing that the Wall Street disaster was the fault of the Bush administration’s anti-regulation, pro-corporate culture. He called for a major overhaul of the financial regulatory system. Mr. McCain stuck to his talking points, railing against greed and corruption. He showed little sign that he understood the fundamental failures in government illuminated by the market crisis…He clung to his argument that cutting Congressional earmarks — which amount to about $18 billion a year — and reducing waste and abuse would solve most of the country’s economic problems and allow him to continue President Bush’s catastrophic tax cuts.
Boston Globe – "Obama showed a grander vision"
Obama was assured and a bit cerebral, showing a command of policy but also reaching for a grander vision of an America that could be admired and respected again in the world.
Grading the Presidential Debate
Gail Collins | New York Times* Cancel the debate!
* Maybe cancel the debate!
* No debate unless Congress passes a financial rescue bill!
* No debate unless Congress has a plan to pass a financial rescue bill.
* Oh, what the heck.
After all that, when the wandering debater (McCain) finally showed up Friday night, he just looked like a smallish, grayish, slightly grumpy guy with a grizzly obsession.
Mark Halperin | Time MagazineObama went for a solid, consistent performance to introduce himself to the country. He did not seem nervous, tentative, or intimidated by the event, and avoided mistakes from his weak debate performances during nomination season (a professorial tone and long winded answers). Standing comfortably on the stage with his rival, he showed he belonged — evocative of Reagan, circa 1980. He was so confident by the end that he reminded his biggest audience yet that his father was from Kenya. Two more performances like that and he will be very tough to beat on Election Day.
Joe Klein | Time MagazineObama emerged as a candidate who was at least as knowledgeable, judicious and unflappable as McCain on foreign policy ... and more knowledgeable, and better suited to deal with the economic crisis and domestic problems the country faces.
September 26, 2008
Post Turtles, Foreign Policy, Sarah Palin, and the 'Judgment' of John McCain
I received the following email 'joke' yesterday. Below the 'joke' I've posted a video clip of Sarah Palin discussing her 'foreign policy experience' with Katie Couric on CBS News. After watching this clip, go look at yourself in the mirror and ask yourself: Does McCain possess the necessary wisdom and judgment to lead this country? Did you keep a straight face? - zjm"While suturing a cut on the hand of a 75-year-old Texas rancher whose
hand had been caught in a gate while working cattle, the doctor struck
up a conversation with the old man. Eventually the topic got around to
Sarah Palin and her bid to be a heartbeat away from being President.
The old rancher said, "Well, ya know, Palin is a post turtle."
Not being familiar with the term, the doctor asked him what a post
turtle was.
The old rancher said, "When you're driving down a country road and
you come across a fence post with a turtle balanced on top, that's a post turtle."
The old rancher saw a puzzled look on the doctor's face, so he
continued to explain. "You know she didn't get up there by herself,
she doesn't belong up there, she doesn't know what to do while she is up
there, and you just wonder what kind of dumb ass put her up there to
begin with."
September 25, 2008
Shocked That Politics Is Going On Here!!!!!!
Posted: Thursday, September 25, 2008 12:44 PM by Mark Murray
From NBC's John Yang
There was a prolonged discussion in White House Press Secretary Dana Perino's daily briefing about the genesis of today's White House meeting -- whether it's politically motivated and whether the deal is as dead as McCain says it is.
Perino acknowledged that the idea of the meeting came from McCain in his phone call to President Bush yesterday. "The President took a little time to think about that," Perino said, and staff called Barack Obama's campaign to see if he'd be available to fly to Washington. Told that Obama would be open to an invitation, Mr. Bush called the senator to ask him to the meeting.
The purpose of the meeting, Perino said, is to get everyone in the same room, on the same page and hash out the legislation. Isn't that what they're doing on the Hill? Well, yes, Perino acknowledged, but this will include the President. And what will he bring to the meeting? She couldn't say.
The greatest semantic pretzel was over Perino's statements that "we have a framework that we can try to close on" and that "we are driving to a conclusion" -- versus McCain's contention that the deal is dead. Perino wouldn't back away from her contention that a deal is close (though not imminent) and finally acknowledged that she didn't know where McCain was getting his information.
Is this all politics -- McCain declaring the deal dead so he can emerge from a White House meeting to declare that his insistence that the leaders and nominees gather in the Cabinet Room saved the day?
Perino was shocked -- SHOCKED! -- at the suggestion of politics. "We don't think this is a political event, we're not trying to make this a political event," she said.
All that was missing was the croupier handing Capt. Renault his winnings.
September 24, 2008
The Spirit of Lincoln
Racism could decide U.S. voteBy LISA VAN DUSEN | September 24, 2008
WASHINGTON, D.C. - The Lincoln Memorial is pretty sparse on this gorgeous early Sunday morning in September, with just the security guards and a handful of German and Spanish tourists capturing the steps in family gaggles, photo by photo.
There are no school groups and, this being America, the locals are at church, so you can BlackBerry most of a column from the top step without being in anyone's way.
When my daughter was little and we lived in Washington, we'd come here on Martin Luther King Day and talk about how these steps were built to honour one man who died for his dream of America and later were made famous by another one.
I hadn't planned on the ritual being that morbid, but that first day I was caught short by the reality that every five-year-old line of questioning led to the same ending.
Abraham Lincoln was called up by history to fight the Civil War to end slavery . . . then what happened?
King fought for civil rights and he delivered his "I Have a Dream" speech on a day just like this from that spot right there and there were so many people you couldn't see a blade of grass between here and the Washington Monument . . . then what happened?
So, the focus got tilted toward the bravery angle.
Behind me, on either side of the exhausted man in the big chair, are engraved two of his speeches, the Gettysburg Address and the second inaugural address.
It's impossible to read them today, to think of Lincoln reminding a nation that it was "conceived in liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal," without thinking of this election.
There's an AP poll that says in an election as close as this one, racist attitudes among Independents and white voters in his own party could cost Barack Obama the presidency; that if he were white, he'd be running six points higher in the polls instead of in a dead heat with John McCain.
This issue was always going to matter, it was just a question of how far Obama would be able to navigate the gradations of comfort to discomfort once you factored out Republicans and people who disagree with him on particular issues before he hit a wall.
Now there's a number attached to that mystery margin of white Independents and Democrats who would have voted for him on the issues, but won't because of his skin colour. It's 2.5 per cent, which is larger than the margin that decided the 2004 election.
It's easy to figure history judged Lincoln to be right as you're sitting on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial instead of the Jefferson Davis Memorial, but what goes into smaller, personal definitions of right and wrong doesn't necessarily get less complicated over time.
It's hard not to wonder what Lincoln would make of this moment and what history will make of this presidential election, less than three lifetimes after he won a war and lost his life over something human progress would no longer abide, regardless.
And it's impossible to look out over the reflecting pool and the empty grass to the Washington monument and not wonder what King would think, less than one lifetime after he stood on that landing, of the confounding persistence of wrong ideas in the only country that could have produced such men.
September 23, 2008
September 22, 2008
Seattle Times Endorses Obama
The Times recommends ...Barack Obama for president
As president, Barack Obama can get America moving forward again.
An economic Katrina is shattering the confidence of hardworking, middle-class Americans. The war that should never have been in Iraq is dragging on too long. At a time of huge challenge, the candidate with the intelligence, temperament and judgment to lead our nation to a better place is Sen. Barack Obama.
Obama should be the next president of the United States because he is the most qualified change agent. Obama is a little young, but also brilliant. If he sometimes seems brainy and professorial, that's OK. We need the leader of the free world to think things through, carefully. We have seen the sorry results of shooting from the hip.
As our country lurches from one financial or energy crisis to the next, American taxpayers remain burdened with the cost of the war in Iraq and Afghanistan — to the tune of $12 billion a month.
Consider the banking and financial morass. Neither Obama nor his opponent, Sen. John McCain, offers a perfect solution. But McCain is all over the map, veering from statements such as "The fundamentals of our economy are strong" to the more obvious "Wall Street is threatened by greed."
McCain is at heart a deregulator. But it is the hands-off and ineffective federal regulatory system that allowed this mess to fester. Obama offered a more coherent approach months ago when he called for regulating investment banks, mortgage brokers and hedge funds and streamlining overlapping regulatory agencies.
Our country is on the wrong track. Average, middle-class citizens have lost confidence that if they work hard, they can improve their lives, afford to send their kids to college and not be tossed out of their homes.
American optimism has been wracked by President George Bush and a previous Republican Congress. If you want change, you do not keep what is essentially the same team in power. You try something different. You vote for the stronger matchup, Obama and Sen. Joseph Biden, a smart and steady hand on foreign policy and other matters.
On the issues:
• The economy: The Good Ship America is listing in turbulent waters. Sinking mortgage and banking institutions are wreaking havoc at home and abroad. The problem is in the private sector, but it has been made worse by a federal policy favoring big corporations. The Bush administration has not regulated these companies effectively or done what it takes to curb their wants.
Obama understands this better than McCain and makes clear he would do more to correct it. Obama's assistance to the middle class in the form of tax cuts and college-tuition breaks is a centerpiece of his campaign.
• Energy: The energy crisis is zapping our economic well-being. What does McCain want to do? "Drill, baby, drill," to quote the mindless chant at the Republican National Convention. That is not an energy policy. It is a cheap, shortsighted slogan.
Obama has a coherent plan that includes some drilling, as a stopgap, but he looks to a mix of renewable resources. He is more likely to move America off its dependence on foreign oil. McCain has been in office for 26 years and done little to change this dynamic.
• The Iraq war: Many Americans will cast their vote on this one issue alone. Past performance is the best indicator of future conduct. Obama opposed the war, McCain supported it full-bore. Obama has a plan for moving the troops out; McCain seeks "victory," whatever that actually means. The net effect will be more time and money wasted in a country that did not participate in 9/11.
Afghanistan harbors the key culprits, and the situation there is worse than it has been in eight years. Afghanistan is where our bigger effort should be, as Obama has articulated.
• Education: Obama is more practical than ideological on education. He wants merit pay for good teachers and extra training or firing for lousy ones. He wants to double federal funding for charter schools, but not in a way that cuts into the heart of public schools. Obama recently gave a major speech on education. McCain is too low-key on an important issue.
On numerous other issues, from media consolidation to health care, Obama has the stronger take. He makes up for a thin résumé with integrity, judgment and fresh ideas. Obama can get America moving forward again.
Houses and cars...
We've already had the conversation about all of McCain's houses ... but what about cars?John and Cindy McCain have 13 cars while Barack and Michelle Obama have one.
zjm
September 21, 2008
Surely...we can be better than this!
Poll: Lingering racism may hurt Obama
WASHINGTON - Deep-seated racial misgivings could cost Barack Obama the White House if the election is close, according to an AP-Yahoo News poll that found one-third of white Democrats harbor negative views toward blacks — many calling them "lazy," "violent" or responsible for their own troubles.
The poll, conducted with Stanford University, suggests that the percentage of voters who may turn away from Obama because of his race could easily be larger than the final difference between the candidates in 2004 — about two and one-half percentage points.
Certainly, Republican John McCain has his own obstacles: He's an ally of an unpopular president and would be the nation's oldest first-term president. But Obama faces this: 40 percent of all white Americans hold at least a partly negative view toward blacks, and that includes many Democrats and independents.
'Less likely to vote for Obama'
More than a third of all white Democrats and independents — voters Obama can't win the White House without — agreed with at least one negative adjective about blacks, according to the survey, and they are significantly less likely to vote for Obama than those who don't have such views.
Such numbers are a harsh dose of reality in a campaign for the history books. Obama, the first black candidate with a serious shot at the presidency, accepted the Democratic nomination on the 45th anniversary of Martin Luther King Jr.'s "I Have a Dream" speech, a seminal moment for a nation that enshrined slavery in its Constitution.
"There are a lot fewer bigots than there were 50 years ago, but that doesn't mean there's only a few bigots," said Stanford political scientist Paul Sniderman who helped analyze the exhaustive survey.
The pollsters set out to determine why Obama is locked in a close race with McCain even as the political landscape seems to favor Democrats. President Bush's unpopularity, the Iraq war and a national sense of economic hard times cut against GOP candidates, as does that fact that Democratic voters outnumber Republicans.
Issue among Democrats
The findings suggest that Obama's problem is close to home — among his fellow Democrats, particularly non-Hispanic white voters. Just seven in 10 people who call themselves Democrats support Obama, compared to the 85 percent of self-identified Republicans who back McCain.
The survey also focused on the racial attitudes of independent voters because they are likely to decide the election.
Lots of Republicans harbor prejudices, too, but the survey found they weren't voting against Obama because of his race. Most Republicans wouldn't vote for any Democrat for president — white, black or brown.
Not all whites are prejudiced. Indeed, more whites say good things about blacks than say bad things, the poll shows. And many whites who see blacks in a negative light are still willing or even eager to vote for Obama.
On the other side of the racial question, the Illinois Democrat is drawing almost unanimous support from blacks, the poll shows, though that probably wouldn't be enough to counter the negative effect of some whites' views.
Race is not the biggest factor driving Democrats and independents away from Obama. Doubts about his competency loom even larger, the poll indicates. More than a quarter of all Democrats expressed doubt that Obama can bring about the change they want, and they are likely to vote against him because of that.
Three in 10 of those Democrats who don't trust Obama's change-making credentials say they plan to vote for McCain.
Still, the effects of whites' racial views are apparent in the polling.
Statistical models derived from the poll suggest that Obama's support would be as much as 6 percentage points higher if there were no white racial prejudice.
But in an election without precedent, it's hard to know if such models take into account all the possible factors at play.
The AP-Yahoo poll used the unique methodology of Knowledge Networks, a Menlo Park, Calif., firm that interviews people online after randomly selecting and screening them over telephone. Numerous studies have shown that people are more likely to report embarrassing behavior and unpopular opinions when answering questions on a computer rather than talking to a stranger.
Other techniques used in the poll included recording people's responses to black or white faces flashed on a computer screen, asking participants to rate how well certain adjectives apply to blacks, measuring whether people believe blacks' troubles are their own fault, and simply asking people how much they like or dislike blacks.
"We still don't like black people," said John Clouse, 57, reflecting the sentiments of his pals gathered at a coffee shop in Somerset, Ohio.
Word association
Given a choice of several positive and negative adjectives that might describe blacks, 20 percent of all whites said the word "violent" strongly applied. Among other words, 22 percent agreed with "boastful," 29 percent "complaining," 13 percent "lazy" and 11 percent "irresponsible." When asked about positive adjectives, whites were more likely to stay on the fence than give a strongly positive assessment.
Among white Democrats, one-third cited a negative adjective and, of those, 58 percent said they planned to back Obama.
The poll sought to measure latent prejudices among whites by asking about factors contributing to the state of black America. One finding: More than a quarter of white Democrats agree that "if blacks would only try harder, they could be just as well off as whites."
Those who agreed with that statement were much less likely to back Obama than those who didn't.
Among white independents, racial stereotyping is not uncommon. For example, while about 20 percent of independent voters called blacks "intelligent" or "smart," more than one third latched on the adjective "complaining" and 24 percent said blacks were "violent."
Nearly four in 10 white independents agreed that blacks would be better off if they "try harder."
The survey broke ground by incorporating images of black and white faces to measure implicit racial attitudes, or prejudices that are so deeply rooted that people may not realize they have them. That test suggested the incidence of racial prejudice is even higher, with more than half of whites revealing more negative feelings toward blacks than whites.
The Clinton factor
Researchers used mathematical modeling to sort out the relative impact of a huge swath of variables that might have an impact on people's votes — including race, ideology, party identification, the hunger for change and the sentiments of Sen. Hillary Clinton's backers.
Just 59 percent of her white Democratic supporters said they wanted Obama to be president. Nearly 17 percent of Clinton's white backers plan to vote for McCain.
Among white Democrats, Clinton supporters were nearly twice as likely as Obama backers to say at least one negative adjective described blacks well, a finding that suggests many of her supporters in the primaries — particularly whites with high school education or less — were motivated in part by racial attitudes.
The survey of 2,227 adults was conducted Aug. 27 to Sept. 5. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points.
Market mayhem has McCain doing the mamba
by Lisa Van Dusen | September 21, 2008Back in 1992, when James Carville posted his immortal sign on the war room wall in Bill Clinton's Little Rock, Ark., campaign headquarters, "It's the economy, stupid" was only No. 2 on his list of three campaign themes.
No. 3 on the list was,"Don't forget health care" and No. 1 was, "Change vs. more of the same."
The fact that all three themes are just as relevant in a presidential campaign 16 years later is either proof of the cyclical theory of change or proof things haven't changed at all.
Back then, the "stupid" was a rhetorical slap upside the head for Clinton and anyone else in the campaign tempted to forget which ball to keep their eye on.
At the time, Americans were still reeling from the effects of a recession made worse by high oil prices following the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq under the last President Bush, who represented 12 years of Republican rule, or "more of the same."
This past week, "It's the economy" has been made so glaringly clear as a campaign issue that it no longer needs the "stupid" because nobody smart enough to know what "the" means much less what "economy" means could still be stupid enough not to get it.
With Wall Street collapsing like a house of cards, oil prices ravaging sector after sector like a virus and the Federal Bailout of the Week program now up to US$900 billion with the addition of this past week's winner, AIG, the U.S. economy is in what even AP, which doesn't go in for hyperbole in its news copy, called "the worst financial meltdown since the Great Depression."
On Thursday, in his first public appearance since the Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 500 points Monday in its steepest plunge since 9/11, the current President Bush gave a two-minute statement to White House reporters, saying nothing really about what he would or even could do to stanch the hemorrhage.
Bush can't blame the crisis in the U.S. economy on anything that happened anywhere else; he can't blame it on contagion from an Asian financial meltdown or a distant currency collapse or banking crisis (though the Japanese banking crisis of the late '90s was a big fat warning about the subprime mortgage collapse).
This disaster is not pneumonia caught from a sneeze sneezed halfway around the world. It's not a tornado unleashed by the fluttering of a butterfly's wings 10 months ago in Thailand.
The problems that have led to this black, black week are domestic, structural, regulatory and a traceable product of the priorities and loyalties of the Bush administration and the Republican party.
That's why the president cancelled his fundraising appearances for Republican candidates last week, drew the shades and became very, very busy.
McCain, meanwhile, kept distancing himself from the president, from his party and from himself as a supporter of both in the past eight years by continuing to talk to voters about the economy as though he just rode into town and can't believe all the cattle rustling and carousing going on.
On the AIG bailout, McCain's statement Wednesday read, "These actions stem from failed regulation, reckless management and a casino culture on Wall Street that has crippled one of the most important companies in America."
But a day earlier, he told CNBC, "I understand the economy. I was chairman of the (Senate) commerce committee that oversights every part of our economy."
Things did change after 1992, but then they changed again. In arguing that presidents make a difference, Barack Obama can point to Bill Clinton's eight years of congressional budget battles leading to a US$127-billion budget surplus Bush has turned into a record US$482-billion deficit; to the longest sustained economic expansion in U.S. history compared to, well, this week; and to 22.5 million jobs created versus less than half that under Bush so far.
For John McCain to now be running as a Washington outsider who was in the men's room when all the big economic decisions were made at the same time as he's taking credit for steering the economy amounts to a targeted, tactical appeal to the one group of voters who could actually believe both to be true.
Maybe somewhere at McCain headquarters, there's a sign on the wall that reads, "It's the stupid, stupid."
