"I'm not sure what they'e smoking over at ol' Hillary's campaign headquarters, but you can bet they are inhaling this time."

Updated: Hillary's Campaign Says That She Leads if you Count Florida and Michigan - Let's Do the Math. Again.

Posted 5/12/2008 7:22 AM CDT

In a private conference call with super delegate supporters over the weekend, Hillary claimed she would win the nomination. That's no surprise since she's had that tape running on a continuous loop for the last 17 months, but Harold Ickes claims that by the end of the primaries, she will "still" be in the lead counting Florida and Michigan. I'm not sure what they'e smoking over at ol' Hillary's campaign headquarters, but you can bet they are inhaling this time.

Just to make sure, let's do the math again to see where we stand:

Delegates needed to win: 2,024.5

Obama pledged delegates: 1,590.5 plus super delegates 275 = 1,865.5

Hillary pledged delegates: 1,426.5 plus super delegates 270.5 = 1,697

Remaining pledged delegates: 217 plus super delegates 249.5

Florida delegates not seated: 172 - Obama 67, Hillary 105 (they didn't campaign there)

Michigan delegates not seated: 128 - Uncommitted 55, Hillary 73 (Obama was not on the ballot)

So...allocating Florida, Obama goes to 1,932.5, Hillary to 1802. Obama still leads.

Allocating Michigan, giving Obama the uncommitted, Obama goes to 1920.5, Hillary to 1875. Obama still leads by 45.5 votes.

So, even if Florida and Michigan are seated as is (which will never happen) Obama still has more delegates. For Hillary to win the nom, she'll need to win over 69% of the remaining delegates to Obama's 48%.

Here's what really entertaining: Last August, as a member of the Rules and Bylaws committee of the DNC, Ickes voted to strip Florida and Michigan of their delegates to "avoid gaming of the system".